Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 2.518201 2.957908 3.446204 4.027893 4.701189 5.455223 6.362917
2025-10-26 1.752831 2.314295 3.007738 3.923679 5.097933 6.548731 8.472696
2025-11-02 1.265430 1.845438 2.629027 3.757243 5.330864 7.437234 10.457685
2025-11-09 0.936642 1.489799 2.297575 3.550058 5.426880 8.114488 12.228550
2025-11-16 0.742003 1.273936 2.105454 3.480426 5.672000 8.996483 14.375279
2025-11-23 0.606640 1.116106 1.962841 3.445845 5.942669 9.927378 16.694753
2025-11-30 0.535858 1.048491 1.948035 3.605358 6.532570 11.414831 20.061695
2025-12-07 0.458170 0.950905 1.861443 3.621457 6.873457 12.526164 22.936624
2025-12-14 0.391788 0.860051 1.768843 3.606724 7.149207 13.548565 25.769566
2025-12-21 0.339938 0.786980 1.695668 3.613032 7.457520 14.655472 28.871068
2025-12-28 0.324618 0.787265 1.766327 3.909609 8.355923 16.940468 34.388814
2026-01-04 0.292380 0.743587 1.738425 3.999034 8.852753 18.517958 38.736762
2026-01-11 0.264558 0.705890 1.719937 4.111918 9.426722 20.339758 43.828839
2026-01-18 0.233100 0.653096 1.659366 4.124296 9.793180 21.796401 48.377457
2026-01-25 0.197523 0.581991 1.543567 3.991609 9.822425 22.558715 51.584830
2026-02-01 0.163890 0.508148 1.407258 3.786596 9.655685 22.878680 53.884571
2026-02-08 0.142097 0.462026 1.331882 3.717679 9.795460 23.882954 57.787218
2026-02-15 0.124895 0.425179 1.273834 3.682695 10.010908 25.080215 62.253661
2026-02-22 0.117707 0.417190 1.292707 3.853182 10.761656 27.601354 70.035987
2026-03-01 0.105885 0.391665 1.257510 3.870567 11.121003 29.230800 75.890202
2026-03-08 0.094473 0.364713 1.213168 3.854969 11.391023 30.672858 81.448993
2026-03-15 0.085079 0.342377 1.178543 3.861717 11.722324 32.303928 87.646356
2026-03-22 0.084541 0.351713 1.244181 4.177453 12.954018 36.356765 100.329906